Sunday, July 3, 2011

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  • Sunx_2004
    07-11 12:23 PM
    I'll tell you how I did it:

    1) USCIS administrative appeals office decisions (can be found by navigating around USCIS.GOV

    2) USCIS memos/interpretations/policies (can also be found on uscis)

    3) Go to department of state web-site. Navigate around it and you will find links to their procedures and interpretations

    4) monitor the forums and see postings

    5) immigration portal used to have links or summaries to AILA liaision minutes with service centers

    6) people used to send me their rfe's, denials and what they lawyers did to get them into the mess. Basically learning how people got into a mess and what uscis did to catch them or to deny their cases

    7) go to dol.gov and look for foreign labor certification; there are FAQ's on perm labors and h-1b


    8) go to uscis.gov and read the INA and CFR's

    --------------------------------------------------------------

    If a person is used to reading laws and understanding the hierarchy and then intertwining uscis procedure along with the various service center procedure then you will start to get a clearer understanding.

    All of the information is public. Don't rely on what your friend told you as they usually only know what someone else told them.

    I had a non compete agreement when I left my employer and couldn't work for one year. During that year; I had nothing to do other then watch tv and watch the portal. No matter how small a question was asked/posted I researched it through all the sources I mentioned above.

    Finally; don't do what you think is right or "gut feeling"...


    Research it; research it and research it some more. Sometimes what you read at first glance; you make a conclusion to your own benefit without understanding all the other laws/policies/procedures that override it.

    Thanks





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  • nojoke
    04-15 04:02 PM
    Are people seriously arguing that a child will not be happier in a bigger home, everything else remaining constant? Seriously, is someone actually arguing this?

    And money can't buy happiness? Really? Are you saying everything else remaining constant if I gave you money it would make you sad? Seriously? Who is this person who would be sadder if I gave him money? I would like to meet him.

    You people need to stop reminiscing about your childhood days and how happy your childhood was even though you had no money. I have a feeling that your child doesn't really care. Sure, give your child lots of love, but for Christ's sake, if you can afford it, don't make him / her spend his / her childhood in a small cramped apartment just because you had to.

    You are confused. Money alone cannot buy happiness. People with less money are all not sad. There is a difference between what people are saying in this forum and what you are implying that they said.
    Your child will be happy in rented house too. There are advantages with renting. There are various factors other than space alone. This does not imply that your child will be sad in a bigger house. As I said you are getting too confused.





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  • unitednations
    03-24 04:30 PM
    You would be even more surprised if you look at the LCA and the salary they pay. Its surprising how they can get away with it. But then they are cap exempt, so that says something.

    I think it is mainly for graduate students who are researchers or professors right?

    I know my brother went this route and the graduate students/post doctorate students don't get paid much. I thought that was changing though.





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  • razis123
    12-18 03:11 AM
    be it Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan Somalia,Darfur,Chechnya, Kashmir, Gujarat... everywhere muslims are killed for being muslims...noone goes to cuba,srilanka,north korea,zimbawe or whereever for watever reason...just imagine God forbid someone comes into your house, occupies it, kills your family, your brothers and sisters in front of you and kicks you out of your home and you are seeing no hope of justice... you wont stand outside your home sending flowers like munna bhai's gandhigiri.. trust me you will become a terrorist.


    It is very true..and it is fact...why is that all terrorists are muslims...something is wrong ...muslims need to come forward....



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  • Macaca
    05-30 05:31 PM
    In China, Crime Is Kept Quiet, Except on TV
    The country remains safe by Western standards, but crime is more common and data are scarce (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520804576349181022278452.html)
    By JAMES T. AREDDY | Wall Street Journal

    Last June, hours after her students went home, Sunny Shi, the principal at a kindergarten in Shanghai's Pudong district, was bludgeoned to death in her office. The suspect was another school employee.

    Officially, it was as if the murder never happened. Not a word was reported publicly by Shanghai police or local media. As talk circulated among parents, the school's administrators offered trauma counseling but requested their silence. "Now the case is under police investigation," the chief administrator said by email, and "we regret that we cannot provide any details."

    The treatment of this case was not unusual. All across China, authorities are thought to hush up episodes like Ms. Shi's killing, which explains in large part why no one knows how much crime occurs in the world's most populous nation. But few doubt that crime is increasing as economic growth divides rich from poor and China permits more personal mobility.

    "In the era of Mao, China was known as a virtually crime-free society," says Steven F. Messner, a University of Albany sociology professor who studies criminality. "To get rich is glorious" is the philosophy today, he added, "but there would be a darker side in terms of crime."

    China's national crime statistics show a sharp escalation in cases over the past decade, led in particular by non-violent larceny, like bicycle theft and purse snatching. But, as in the U.S., the official numbers also point to steep declines in violent crime, with the murder rate dropping by half between 2000 and 2009.

    Experts consider China's crime statistics both problematic and politicized. They also generally agree that the country remains safe by Western standards. Dark streets don't imply danger here.

    Evidence abounds, however, that the Communist Party leadership's ideal of a "harmonious society" remains a target, not the reality. In China's growing cities, aluminum bars over windows and doors make most apartments resemble jails. Homeowners are snapping up security devices like cameras and alarms.

    Anxious about kidnapping, China's newly wealthy often drive bullet-proof Land Rovers and hire kung fu masters from Shaolin Temple as security agents.

    Television contributes a fear factor with real-crime shows modeled on "America's Most Wanted" and "Cops." China Central Television says its law-and-order channel grabs more viewers than its sports stations. Every day, CCTV's one-hour documentary "Legal Report" follows detectives as they crack sensational abduction, extortion and robbery cases.

    Its coverage of a spate of apparently random attacks on seven women this year in Hebei province, for instance, featured the nighttime capture of 23-year-old Zhang Yunshuai. His foldable knife decorated with a butterfly was shown as evidence. He was led to a subsequent interview wearing a reflective orange prison vest and cuffed at the wrists and ankles, where he tilted his shaved head and muttered, "because women break my heart."

    Shorter installments drew on security cameras that captured a thief shielding his pilfering hand beneath a menu in a crowded Beijing restaurant and thugs casing hotel lobbies for handbags.

    On these true-life crime shows, "the man" consistently finds his perp. A popular notion holds that the censors permit these shows about China's criminal underworld because they allow the leadership to demonstrate how the pervasive surveillance of the government equates to swift justice.

    Canadian Debra O'Brien got an up-close look at China's criminal justice system after her 22-year-old daughter Diana was stabbed to death three years ago in Shanghai, a bombshell case just weeks before the start of the 2008 Olympics. Authorities quickly won a confession from Chen Jun, a penniless 18-year-old migrant from rural Anhui province. Mr. Chen admitted he struggled with the aspiring model during his bungled attempt to burgle her apartment, located steps from a tea shop that recently fired him.

    Ms. O'Brien left impressed. She received extensive briefings by senior police and personal copies of forensic photos. The judge even sought her opinion about a death sentence for Mr. Chen. She had a face-to-face with the apologetic killer.

    "It was all shocking and horrific, but everything was done really respectfully and transparently," Ms. O'Brien said by telephone. "You don't feel there is a lot of ego going on. People are doing their jobs."

    But the public wasn't offered many details. Ms. O'Brien herself admits she isn't sure of what happened to Mr. Chen but believes he became eligible for release two months ago. Mr. Chen's lawyer says he is serving life.

    Pi Yijun, a professor of criminal justice at China University of Political Science and Law in Beijing, says that he sees crime rising and getting more violent, which he attributes to anger and frustration among society's have-nots. "The accepted mindset seems, 'fists are more powerful than reason,'" he said.

    But in a rare 2004 survey of crime victimization, centered on the northern city Tianjin, the University of Albany's Mr. Messner found that few people were touched personally by crimes worse than a stolen bicycle. He credits traditional features of Chinese society. "You still have a much more communitarian orientation than the extreme individualism you see in the U.S.," he said.



    China Clamps Down in Bid to Halt Protests in Inner Mongolia (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576353353518093630.html) By BRIAN SPEGELE | Wall Street Journal
    China tries to avert Inner Mongolia protests (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-china-mongolia-protests-20110530,0,3895402.story) By Barbara Demick | Los Angeles Times
    The China Story Darkens (http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3223&Itemid=422) By Philip Bowring | Asia Sentinel
    Once Again, U.S. Finds China Isn�t Manipulating Its Currency (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/28/business/global/28currency.html) By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM | The New York Times





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  • Macaca
    05-09 05:48 PM
    Utah's Immigration Model (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703859304576304942483922996.html) Wall Street Journal Editorial

    If the states are meant to be laboratories of democracy, they have to get a chance to actually run their experiments. That's the story in Utah, where a new state immigration law is catching flak even before it goes into effect.

    In a Senate Judiciary hearing on Wednesday, Attorney General Eric Holder said the law, which combines enforcement measures with a guest worker program, needs to be adjusted or face federal lawsuits. Pressed on whether the Administration planned to sue Utah, Mr. Holder said the Department of Justice "will look at the law, and if it is not changed to our satisfaction by 2013, we will take the necessary steps."

    That's a tad awkward for the Attorney General, since the Utah plan probably looks a lot like what the federal government will end up considering if immigration reform has any hope of passing. Last summer, the Administration pounced like election-year politicians on an Arizona law that enlisted local police to enforce federal immigration statutes. So what's a state to do?

    Passed by the state's GOP legislature and signed by Republican Governor Gary Herbert in March, Utah's plan is notable because it's the first in the country that would allow undocumented immigrants to get a permit and work legally, after paying a fine of up to $2500 and meeting other conditions. The program is part of a larger package that includes increased scrutiny of immigrants who break the law. The compromise allows the state to address the economy's demand for workers�thus reducing the incentive for illegal immigration�while satisfying voters who don't want to reward those who arrived illegally.

    Like Arizona, Utah is already fending off lawsuits from the left. On Tuesday, the American Civil Liberties Union and the National Immigration Law Center sued to stop the portion of the law similar to the one in Arizona that enlists state and local police in the effort to identify illegal immigrants. In Utah's version, anyone who is arrested for a felony or serious misdemeanor has to show proof of citizenship.

    Unlike measures that unite talk radio hosts and labor unions against "amnesty," the Utah law doesn't create a path to citizenship or have any effect on an immigrant's legal status. That model could work for other states looking for a bipartisan compromise. Republican legislators in Texas have introduced similar legislation for guest worker programs, and Nebraska lawmakers plan to travel to Utah to learn more about the new law.

    Critics of state immigration laws often maintain that those decisions are the province of the federal government. Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution grants Congress the power "To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization," and it's possible Utah might lose in court. But what are states to do when the federal government is unable to act on immigration? Utah's laws don't grant legal status to undocumented workers; they grant a work permit. Does the federal government have the power over such employment decisions?

    States are passing these laws because Congress has abdicated. Instead of ordering Utah to step back in line, or else, the Administration might consider what it can learn from Utah legislators who made a good faith effort to balance competing interests and solve a problem.




    Immigration: A better farm worker fix (http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/opinionla/la-ed-visa-20110509,0,7562015.story) Los Angeles Times Editorial
    U.S. Warns Schools Against Checking Immigration Status (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/07/education/07immig.html) By KIRK SEMPLE | New York Times
    Is the Asian Century upon us? It depends (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/is-the-asian-century-upon-us-it-depends/article2011668/) By HARUHIKO KURODA | Globe and Mail Update
    Immigration North of the Border (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hazeen-ashby/immigration-north-of-the-_b_857441.html) By Hazeen Ashby | The Huffington Post
    Another project in trouble
    First the euro, now Schengen. Europe�s grandest integration projects seem to be suffering (http://www.economist.com/node/18618525)
    The Economist
    Smugglers Guide Illegal Immigrants With Cues via Cellphone (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/09/us/09coyotes.html) By MARC LACEY | New York Times
    As Barriers to Lawyers Persist, Immigrant Advocates Ponder Solutions (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/04/nyregion/barriers-to-lawyers-persist-for-immigrants.html) By SAM DOLNICK | New York Times
    Lawyers for Immigrants (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/09/opinion/l09immig.html) Letters | New York Times



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  • gomirage
    06-07 01:05 PM
    I don't know where you can find 5% interest p.a. investment today but for the sake of argument that I found one, I think I can't get the $60k at the end of 10th yr.

    The are plenty of no load mutual funds returning consistently above 5% annually return. If you want a zero risk investment you can get at least 3% (sometimes more than 5%) with ING direct, HSBC direct, and many more direct saving accounts. Last year HSBC offered 6% to compete with ING's 5%, while on the other side house prices were nose diving.

    So my point is even at 3%, zero risk it's a good deal compared with gambling on a house that may never come back to original purchase price, in our life time.

    Remember, this is not a one time event. This crisis has changed the world for ever. There will never ever be banks giving loans for more than 3 or 4 times income. So for prices to come back again, you are really banking on disposal income levels going up, which is not a safe bet, with the Indias and Chinas of the world proving very competitive offshore services.

    This whole chaos was created in the first place by inflating the economy to find a solution to the dot com bust.

    Again, we are not recommending against buying a house, which everyone should do at a point in our lives, but it's unsafe to bank on it, as a sound investment.





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  • Macaca
    07-08 09:29 AM
    googled it and found the link..it might be helpful to many folks..

    http://www.ilw.com/seminars/august2002_citation2b.pdf
    This ia an Aug 2001 report. Hope it is current!

    Is it authentic if written by lawyers? Thanks



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  • mrajatish
    04-08 11:39 PM
    I think we all agree that H1B visa needs reform. But reform has to stop the abuse of the system, not break the system itself.

    1. How can we ever defend a reform that prevents H1B holder from performong services for another client? Does that mean Deloitte, IBM, BCG, Mckenzie et.al. will not be able to employ any foreign national any more?

    2. How can we mandate that someone, who might have their labor and 140 approved, has to go through a certification process to renew H1 for the same job?

    These are some of the many things wrong with this bill. If Senator Durbin wants to really make "American workers first; H1B abuse limited" work, he might attempt to do the following:

    1. Free up the system such that a temporary worker can certify himself/herself for a job position for a few years (aka EAD for 3 years without being tied to an employer). The employer has to pay the same prevailing wage etc.

    2. Do not abuse the worker by asking him/her to pay for Social Security and Medicare when you call him "temporary" worker. H1B workers should be exempt from such taxes till they file 485 (Adjustment of status).

    And there are many more that I can think of that makes sense. Hope we, as a group, can prevail upon the good sense of the U.S. congress and pass meaningful reform, not a hogwash.





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  • validIV
    06-25 01:46 PM
    I couldn't agree more. My first home is almost fully paid off. Peace of mind is a great thing.

    I will be happy owning one home. And hope to repay it off quickly so i dont have any BANK to answer to. Having a peace of mind that one day when i pay off the home nobody can kick me off my home for any reason is PRICELESS to me.

    It's not for my grandkids. Its for my wife and my kids when I retire.


    Owning 10 homes so that you can donate to your grandkids may be PRICELESS to you. I wish you the best.



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  • mariner5555
    03-26 03:34 PM
    I am still confused about the whole GC issue in buying and selling a home. Why is GC an issue in owing property or even taking overseas vacations? I have done both with absolutely no issues-caribbeans, europe, India. I have owned a home, and then decided to change jobs-move to a different city and sell my house. Heck I sold my house when I was on vacation in India. I did everything by phone and fax, and this is not some few years ago, this is 2 months ago.
    I totally agree with the fact that location and the condition of the house being the key factors. Maybe the fact that I have been here for a few years makes me resident alien for tax purposes helped me? I am not entirely sure.
    Folks mentioned that what if you lose your job, and have to leave the country etc. But like I mentioned a house can be sold from abroad. And if you have a GC and you lose ur job, how will you make mortgage payments etc. So some problems will stay the same.
    Any thoughts/comments on my dilema?
    Perhaps someone can elaborate on why GC is a factor?
    Cheers.
    it depends on a persons risk amount - I guess. where did you sell yr house --was it for a loss ? maybe you are lucky to have sold it in last 2 months or something is not correct here.
    you can sell the house from abroad - but what if it does nt find a buyer for 6 months ..how do you make the mortgage payments.
    for me GC is important - for one - I don't have to worry about status / DHS .
    getting a job on GC is easier than on a EAD (u see some threads here already). on GC you can get a job is another field / part - time..without worrying about DHS / DL ..from abroad, I guess you give everything to a RE agent ..I can come up with tons of issues with it (but I know you will come up with counter explanations - so I won't bother). BTW I hope you are not a realtor right ?? some of desperate realtors do anything to convince people nowadays ..the latest I heard was telling me to buy before Hillary comes to white house ..with a mumbo jumbo explanation





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  • dpp
    05-16 12:07 PM
    No need to have Durbin's bill. Just ban Outsourcing, then all jobs will come back and everybody will be happy here in US.


    My view is not based on my personal gain or loss. My view is even if they ban consulting H1b numbers will not be reduced so much and cap will be reached. Number of permanent jobs will increase and they will hire H1b only when there is real shortage. Why do you think IEEE-USA members are undeserving and lazy just because they are interesting to put restrictions in H1b? Infact they are interested in more green cards. We are appreciating. Just because they are pointing out some problems in the program we cannot brand them as anti immigrants or lazy people. We ourself know that there are some issues in the program. While we were studying in the college it was big achivement if our research article comes into IEEE. So IEEE is considered as one of world best academic association.

    It is not TCS,Infy,Wipro is causing delay to GC. Infact I worked one of those companies and still they are one of best in India. Still I may work those companies if I go to India.

    If there is real shortage of skilled people then we will pass all the tests which are given in Durbin proposal and we can get H1b. What is the problem in accepting? Infact I am not supporting Ban of H1b on consulting but other than that everything can be fine and easily passed by most of H1b persons



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  • Refugee_New
    01-06 02:32 PM
    Yes, they definitely have...Hamas should stop using school kids as human shield before complaining. Heres link for you - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elyXQ6g-TJs

    Gaza is a small town where more than 1.5 million people live there. Hamas is part and parcel of Gaza because they are elected by palestinian people and wherever they go, its full of people. Its a small land with crowded people. Gaza is like a crowded market.

    Again you are trying to justify the killing of innocent school kids and civilian. This is a big LIE constantly told by media to cover up the massacre. This is part of their divide and rule strategy. This Lie is something similar to WMD claim.

    Do you think Indian police will bomb the crowded street in order to kill a theif, then blame the theif that he is hiding behind civilian?





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  • GCKaMaara
    12-17 03:49 PM
    Your anger is justified, but what is your contribution to fix this? created a new IV handle TODAY to talk against a faith? So your other handle where you talk only about immigration will be clean? LOL!

    Your are really a brave Indian!

    I was reading posts on 485 Approved what Marphad mentioned. I saw that it was actually you who created new IV handle that day.



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  • srikondoji
    09-26 02:48 PM
    I have spent 10 years in the hope that i will able to get a GC soon and settle down. I eagerly waited for a change in the EB category of the Immigration system. This change didn't happen in the Clinton administration nor in the Bush administration. I also don't see this happening in the next administration that is going to take over this country soon.

    After spending 10 years in United States, i have started working on my plans to move back to India.
    Every administration past or present has lumped skilled immigrants in the same category as immigrants who enter united states illegally.
    Due to their sheer number, almost all initiatives to fix the immigration system has been to safeguard the borders, punish the employers who hire people without proper paper work etc. Skilled immigrants figure no where in their policy statements.
    Despite working hard during the last years CIR bill, to make officials realize the distinction betweek illegal and skilled immigrants, we have to face the failure.
    Even though i am hoping to see Obama succeed in this Presidential race and bring the change he promised to America, i am making my plans to move back to India as an alternative.
    --sri





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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-06 06:30 PM
    Wish I could think so quickly.

    A man boarded a plane with 6 kids. After they got settled in their seats a woman sitting across the aisle from him leaned over to him and asked,

    'Are all of those kids yours?'

    He replied, 'No. I work for a condom company. These are customer complaints.'



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  • unseenguy
    06-20 05:49 PM
    I went from 3 green's to 6 red's. I am not sure what I did to deserve this. I just expressed my opinion and provided facts on which I based my opinion.

    How do I know who gave me the red's?

    There are some people here who will indulge in tarnishing your reputation when they do not agree with your post. I gave you green to get your reputation back or enhanced. I think your post was very respectable and a free opinion and it did not deserve any red dots.





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  • axp817
    03-26 05:20 PM
    What eventually happened to the case.

    The baltimore case I mentioned happened in 2005 which was certified by AAO.

    UN,
    Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this. As always, your time is highly appreciated.

    So I assume in the Baltimore case, the 485 eventually did get approved (or if still pending, the USCIS atleast okayed the switch back to the petitioning employer despite the 140 revocation).

    And yes, I am talking about cases where the 140 was revoked for genuine ability to pay reasons and not so the underlying labor could be substituted for someone else.





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  • NKR
    08-06 02:09 PM
    To balance things out why not give a person who acquires a Masters or PhD a few years in terms of priority date.


    This is a better proposition, asking for more relief to Masters or PHD guys makes more sense than asking USCIS to stop porting/interfiling and denying EB3 guys a chance to get faster GC after they have waited for many many years.





    senthil1
    12-20 04:22 PM
    Everybody are blaming Bush for his failure in Iraq and Economy. But Bush had a big acheivement in his period. After 9/11 he successfully prevented Terrorist attacks. That was most important acheivement and that was overshadowed by other failures.

    Yes, everybody, all senators, wanted to teach these terrorists a lesson after 9/11.
    Afghan war is good and Iraq war is bad. Why, because Iraqis didn't leave WMDs a.k.a nukes behind.
    (A weapon of mass destruction (WMD) is a weapon that can kill large numbers of humans and/or cause great damage to man-made structures (e.g. buildings), natural structures (e.g. mountains), or the biosphere in general. The term is often used to cover several weapon types, including nuclear, biological, chemical (NBC), and radiological weapons)

    Now, Iraq war went bad, economy went bad (due to main street scamming the banks) and suddenly its all the fault of Mr. Bush.





    JazzByTheBay
    06-05 01:41 AM
    It's reassuring to see one's thought process wasn't entirely illogical after all.

    Now, if you talk to real estate agents, you'll be told this is "the best time to buy".

    jazz


    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    ------------------------------------
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.



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